Notification

---

Dear Reader!

Since SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq in June 2026, at $135 a share under the ticker $SPCX, questions keep coming in the same form: Do you buy SpaceX at this valuation? Or when is the right time to get into SpaceX stock? They are fair questions. SpaceX sits among the eight most valuable companies on Earth. I think it's the most consequential company in the history of humanity so far.

SpaceX is not a rocket company. It's a four layer bet on the physics of AI.

Strip away the launch pads and here is the actual story: Starlink, Grok, Terafab, and compute in orbit. Each layer feeds the next.

Q2 of 2026 showed $7.8 billion in revenue, nearly doubling year-over-year, driven largely by Starlink’s 12 million subscribers and $4.3 billion in connectivity revenue that quarter alone. The multiple remains elevated, well over 80 times trailing sales on some measures, and the capital intensity of Starship development, AI-related compute build-out, and constellation expansion keeps free cash flow negative for now. The management now projects a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December 2026 and has pulled its trillion-dollar revenue target forward to 2030. Those are audacious numbers

Layer one: Starlink, the cash engine. The connectivity segment did $11.4 billion in 2025, 61% of company revenue, and it's the consistently profitable business inside SpaceX. Starlink already exceeds the size the entire satellite internet market was estimated at in 2025. Its job now is not to win telecom; it's to bankroll and network everything below.

Layer two: Grok and the AI business. In February 2026, the merger with xAI, which valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, turned SpaceX into an AI company overnight. The segment is pursuing 15–20 gigawatts of compute capacity while closing a reported $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, whose founders had built it to a $2 billion revenue run rate.

Layer three: Terafab, the silicon. Every AI model runs on chips made almost entirely by TSMC in Taiwan on ASML machines from the Netherlands, a supply chain with obvious geopolitical fragility. On August 6, SpaceX and Tesla committed an initial $16.8 billion to build Terafab in Grimes County, Texas, with filings showing a $55 billion first phase scaling to as much as $119 billion.

Layer four: compute in orbit, the endgame. Here's where the layers snap together. On January 30, SpaceX filed with the FCC for an orbital data center constellation of up to one million satellites between 500 and 2,000 kilometers altitude. The first AI1 satellite design carries about 150 kW of compute with a 70-meter solar wingspan. Solar arrays, radiators, and laser links that already exist in the Starlink V3 satellites. The rockets are just the freight line; the product is energy converted to intelligence.

The Larger Story: Space as Commercial Infrastructure

Framing the decision solely around one ticker misses the larger, more durable shift happening in the space industry. Space is no longer a government-dominated arena of prestige missions and cost-plus contracts. It has become commercial infrastructure, and the companies that will capture lasting value are not limited to the single largest player. The global space economy stood at approximately $626 billion to $686 billion in 2025, with commercial activity accounting for 78–79 percent of the total. Growth has settled into a high single-digit to low double-digit annual pace, with credible projections pointing toward $1 trillion by the early-to-mid 2030s. That expansion rests on a simple economic fact: the cost of reaching orbit has reduced tremendously, satellite manufacturing has scaled, and demand for connectivity, Earth observation, and resilient defense assets has moved from niche to structural. These are the reasons that make the space industry genuinely investable and draw investor interest.

Launch Economics Have Fundamentally Changed

Let's consider the launch market first. In 2025, the world recorded 324 orbital launch attempts, a new record and a 25 percent jump from the prior year. SpaceX accounted for 165 of those flights, roughly half by count and the overwhelming majority of mass delivered to orbit. Thanks to Falcon 9’s reusability and the internal demand from Starlink. Historical benchmarks of $18,000 plus per kilogram to low-Earth orbit have fallen below $3,000 per kilogram for many commercial missions. Starship’s progressive test campaign, including the successful deployment of next-generation Starlink V3 satellites on its thirteenth flight in July 2026, aims to drive that figure even lower. The point is not that one company owns the market forever; it is that lower marginal costs unlock volume that was previously uneconomic. Dedicated small satellite missions, rideshares, and medium-lift alternatives become viable once the price of access drops.

The better question: SpaceX is building the critical infrastructure. Who rides into it?

That is precisely where specialized operators are building positions that do not require matching SpaceX’s scale. Rocket Lab’s Electron has flown dozens of missions with high reliability for small payloads that need precise orbital insertion rather than a bulk rideshare. Its backlog stood at a record $2.4 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026. Neutron’s first flight is now targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 after a tank-test setback earlier in the year. The combination of existing Electron cadence, growing space-systems manufacturing, and a credible path to medium-lift capacity gives Rocket Lab a differentiated role. This provides reliable access for customers who cannot or will not wait for a Falcon 9 slot optimized around Starlink deployment.

Downstream, the same cost reduction is enabling new service models. AST SpaceMobile $ASTS is constructing a constellation designed to deliver broadband directly to unmodified smartphones. Management is targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

Earth-observation providers illustrate another layer of the commercial stack. Planet Labs $PL operates one of the largest fleets of imaging satellites, delivering daily global coverage at medium resolution alongside higher-resolution tasking. Its subscription-heavy model, with over 90 percent recurring revenue in recent periods, has resulted in the first full year of positive free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA.

Startup Starcloud already trained the first AI model in space on H100S in December, with a Blackwell-class follow-up launching in October. Even Amazon's Leo constellation, now in enterprise beta with Verizon, AT&T, and JetBlue, and Blue Origin's newly booster-landing New Glenn matter to the thesis: credible competition keeps launch prices falling, which subsidizes every satellite business on this list.

Defense demand reinforces the commercial trend rather than competing with it. Governments are treating space as critical infrastructure for missile warning, communications resilience, and intelligence. The growing budgets of the U.S. Space Force and its multi-year contracts with commercial primes, covering areas such as launch services, satellite buses, and sensor constellations, provide revenue visibility that pure commercial markets often lack. Rocket Lab’s recent Flatellite win and AST SpaceMobile’s government milestones are examples; similar patterns appear across the sector. Private capital has followed, with cumulative investment in core space technologies exceeding $128 billion since 2009, and significant funding in 2025–2026.

Execution risks and structural constraints

None of this implies a risk-free environment. Capital intensity remains high. Execution risk on next-generation vehicles such as Neutron or Starship is real, as demonstrated by schedule slips and test anomalies. Spectrum coordination, orbital debris mitigation, and export-control regimes can constrain growth. Valuation multiples across the public pure-plays are still elevated relative to near-term earnings, and competition from Chinese state-backed and commercial launch providers is intensifying. A prolonged period of high interest rates or a sharp reduction in government budgets would pressure the entire industry.

Investment implications: Diversified exposure over a single ticker

The good time to allocate to the space economy is not the moment one stock reaches a particular multiple; it is when the underlying economics of access and demand have shifted permanently. That shift is already visible in the launch cadence, the subscriber numbers, the contracted backlogs, and the steady migration of activity from pure government programs to commercial markets. Success in this industry will be measured in years and decades, not quarters. Your investment holding period will be important. Keep in mind that this is a capital-intensive industry with high barriers to entry. Please be sure to manage your allocation based on your comfort level, and build it patiently over time. The commercialization of space is not speculative; it is evident through backlogs, FCC filings, and Pentagon contracts. Consider space as a sector rather than a single company. Establish a solid core investment in the company that is building the infrastructure, with surrounding investments in the companies that will utilize it. SpaceX laid the railroad. The fortunes will be split with everyone who figures out what to ship on it.

​
If you like this article, please share, follow. It really helps! 🙏

Happy investing,
Stockscurrent Team